On July 30, ICE futures plunged again. The market had largely given up hope before the talks began. Mr. Trump said China wanted to wait until a new democratic President of the United States came to power before signing a deal. And he remains willing to impose tariffs on the remaining $350bn of Chinese goods if talks fail to produce a deal. In addition, he said China is not buying enough U.S. agricultural products as promised at the G20 summit.

The supply pressure on the cotton market has not abated at all. According to the latest report, the U.S. cotton yield rose to 61% last week, 18 percentage points higher than the five-year average and 11 percentage points higher than the 10-year average. Texas and Georgia had excellent rates of 59% and 61%, respectively. The U.S. department of agriculture's August supply and demand forecast is likely to continue to raise next year's U.S. cotton production.

Speculative short positions remain at historic levels, and there is no thought of liquidating them. The only thing that could change in price is a complete settlement of trade with the United States. Technical graph, if do not know whether it is bullish or bearish, can put the daily chart from a little further look, the trend line is now from the upper left corner to the lower right corner, and the low price is constantly refreshing, there is no more than this graph can illustrate the market bearish.

The fed is due to announce its currency policy on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a cut of 25 to 75 basis points. If true, it would be the first rate cut in two years. Normally, a cut in interest rates means a fall in the dollar, which is good for American exports.

The market needs to be reminded that with the December contract at around 63 cents and a near 10-year low of 54.19 cents in 2016, the market may be approaching a bottom and the likelihood that bears will continue to aggressively short at these low levels is diminishing. And, compared with cotton, corn prices remain high, and current cotton prices are not good for next year's planting. If the trade war between the United States and China continues as it is, the market needs to be on guard against the loss of U.S. cotton acreage to corn next year.